The Growth of Germany’s Muslim Population

Between 2010 and 2016, a series of Muslims vital in Germany rose from 3.3 million (4.1% of a population) to scarcely 5 million (6.1%), while a rest of a race shrank modestly from 77.1 million to 76.5 million. Immigration has been a vital cause in a expansion of Germany’s Muslim population. But, even if there is no some-more immigration, Muslims will continue to boost as a share of Germany’s race in destiny decades since German Muslims, on average, are many younger and have some-more babies than Germans as a whole.

Muslims are younger and have some-more children than non-Muslims in Germany and in Europe overall

Median age, 2016

Total flood rate, 2015-2020

Muslims

31

1.9

Non-Muslims

47

1.4

Germany

Muslims

30

2.6

Non-Muslims

44

1.6

Europe avg.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Muslims are younger and have some-more children than non-Muslims in Germany and in Europe overall

Median age, 2016

Muslims

31

Non-Muslims

47

Germany

Muslims

30

Non-Muslims

44

Europe avg.

Total flood rate, 2015-2020

1.9

1.4

Germany

2.6

1.6

Europe avg.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

These commentary come from demographic models built by Pew Research Center to uncover how Europe’s race is changing. It is unfit to envision destiny emigration flows, so we modeled 3 opposite scenarios with varying levels of emigration to plan what could occur by a year 2050. Without any some-more migration, Germany’s aging population would be approaching to decrease about 15% by 2050. But if new emigration patterns continue, a altogether race is projected to reason solid or even boost by a center of a 21st century, in vast partial due to a attainment of Muslim immigrants.

Muslims done adult 4.9%

of Europe’s race in 2016

Estimated % of Muslims among sum race in any country

Finland

2.7

Russia

% of race that is Muslim

Nor.

5.7

18.0%

Sweden

8.1

Est.

0.2

12.0-17.9

6.0-11.9

Denmark

5.4

3.0-5.9

Lat. 0.2

Netherlands

7.1

Lith.

0.1

Baltic

Sea

Ireland

1.4

Belarus

Belgium

7.6

UK

6.3

Poland

Ukraine

Germany

6.1

Czech R.

0.2

Slvk. 0.1

Lux.

3.2

Mol.

Austria

6.9

Hungary

0.4

Switz.

6.1

France

8.8

Romania

0.4

Black Sea

Slovenia

3.8

Bos./

Herz.

Serb.

Bulgaria

11.1

Croatia

1.6

Italy

4.8

Portugal

0.4

Mac.

Spain

2.6

Alb.

Turkey

Greece

5.7

Mediterranean Sea

Cyprus 25.4

Malta 2.6

Muslims done adult 4.9%

of Europe’s pop. in 2016

Estimated % of Muslims among sum race in any country

% of population

that is Muslim

18.0%

12.0-17.9

Finland

2.7

6.0-11.9

Nor.

5.7

3.0-5.9

Swe.

8.1

Est.

0.2

Lat. 0.2

Denmark

5.4

Lith.

0.1

Neth.

7.1

Ire.

1.4

Poland

UK

6.3

Germany

6.1

Belg.

7.6

Czech R.

0.2

Slvk. 0.1

Lux.

3.2

Hun.

0.4

Aust.:6.9

Rom.

0.4

France

8.8

Slv.: 4.3

Switz.

6.1

Bul.

11.1

Croatia

1.6

Port.

0.4

Spain

2.6

Italy

4.8

Greece

5.7

Mediterranean Sea

Malta 2.6

Cyprus 25.4

These patterns are similar to trends opposite Europe (defined in a new news as a European Union and Norway and Switzerland). As a many populous nation and a biggest economy in a EU, Germany mostly sets a tinge for policies among a EU’s 28 member states. Under a care of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany has non-stop a borders to vast numbers of migrants, including many Muslim refugees seeking haven from fight and disturbance in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.

BERLIN, GERMANY - MARCH 11: People pulling suitcases arrive during a Central Registration Office for Asylum Seekers (Zentrale Aufnahmestelle fuer Fluechtlinge, or ZAA) of a State Office for Health and Social Services (Landesamt fuer Gesundheit und Soziales, or LAGeSo), that is a registration bureau for refugees and migrants nearing in Berlin who are seeking haven in Germany, on Mar 11, 2015 in Berlin, Germany. Germany, that purebred over 200,000 refugees in 2014, is awaiting even some-more in 2015 and many cities and towns are disorder underneath a weight of carrying to accommodate them. The categorical countries of start of a refugees embody Syria, Serbia, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo and Albania. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Between mid-2010 and mid-2016, Germany supposed an estimated 670,000 refugees, roughly 86% of whom are Muslims. In addition, 680,000 “regular” migrants from outward a EU (non-refugees who changed for economic, family or other reasons) have come to Germany between mid-2010 and mid-2016, nonetheless a smaller commission of these migrants (40%) are Muslims. Altogether, Germany perceived a sum of about 1.35 million migrants during this duration – including an estimated 850,000 Muslims. This figure excludes an additional 540,000 haven seekers whose applications for haven have been deserted or are approaching to be rejected, formed on past capitulation rates.

 

 

Similar patterns are approaching in a future. Even if all emigration to and from Germany were to stop as of a center of 2016, Germany’s Muslim race would be projected to boost by about 1 million, from only underneath 5 million (6.1% of a 2016 population) to 6 million in 2050 (8.7% of a timorous altogether population). This is since Muslims in Germany are extremely younger than non-Muslims – with median ages of 31 and 47, respectively, in 2016 – and since Muslim women have some-more children (1.9, on average) than non-Muslims in Germany (1.4).

In a “medium” emigration unfolding – that envisions unchanging emigration continuing, though all interloper flows entrance to a stop as of mid-2016 – Muslims would series 8.5 million and make adult 10.8% of Germany’s race in 2050. This is smaller than a projected Muslim populations in this unfolding in a United Kingdom (13.1 million) and France (12.6 million), since a UK and France have tended to accept some-more regular Muslim migrants than Germany, while distant some-more Muslim refugees have arrived in Germany.

Alternatively, in a “high” emigration unfolding in that both unchanging emigration and a complicated flows of refugees from a Middle East were to continue indefinitely into a future, Germany’s Muslim race would be approaching to some-more than triple by 2050, flourishing from 4.9 million (6.0%) to 17.5 million (19.7%). In this scenario, Germany would have a largest Muslim race in Europe during midcentury.

The high emigration unfolding maybe best corresponds to a final year in Germany, since a vast volume of applications for haven continued to arrive after mid-2016 (the finish of a time duration analyzed in this report). However, new process shifts have done a high unfolding reduction picturesque in a future; an EU agreement with Turkey has slowed a liquid of refugees to mainland Europe, and a German supervision has taken stairs to extent destiny flows. After a Sep 2017 choosing gave a far-right Alternative for Germany celebration a participation in council for a initial time, Merkel signaled honesty to limiting a series of haven seekers entering Germany to 200,000 per year. These opposing factors might put Germany’s stream march somewhere in between a middle and high scenarios.

FUCHSOEDT, AUSTRIA - OCTOBER 17: Migrants who had arrived around buses franchised by Austrian authorities travel towards a limit to Germany on Oct 17, 2015 nearby Fuchsoedt, Austria. According to a German military orator approximately 6,000 migrants are nearing daily over a Austrian limit only in a area of southeastern Bavaria nearby a city of Passau. Most arrive around a Balkan track and once in Austria are ecstatic by Austrian authorities to locations nearby a limit to Germany. Germany has reportedly purebred over 800,000 migrants this year, 400,000 in Sep alone. The migrants embody many refugees from countries including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. Germany is struggling to accommodate a many migrants, many of whom will request for asylum. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

In opinion polls, a German open expresses changeable attitudes toward refugees. On a one hand, a infancy of German adults (61%) consider refugees boost a odds of terrorism. But many do not see this as an strident threat: About seven-in-ten contend a attainment of vast numbers of refugees from countries like Iraq and Syria represents possibly a “minor threat” (49%) or no hazard during all (22%). Only about three-in-ten (28%) contend these refugees are a “major threat” to Germany. People in several other European countries – including Greece, Hungary and Poland – are some-more prone to see refugees from Iraq and Syria as a vital threat.

In general, Germans express certain views of refugees, with many observant they make Germany stronger since of their tough work and talents (59%), rather than being a weight by holding jobs and amicable advantages (31%). Most Germans also see Muslims in their nation in a certain light: Roughly two-thirds contend they have a “very favorable” (10%) or “mostly favorable” (55%) perspective of Muslims, compared with about three-in-ten who demonstrate a mostly (23%) or really (6%) adverse opinion. At a same time, there is widespread doubt about integration. A infancy of Germans (61%) trust many Muslims in Germany “want to be graphic from a incomparable German society,” rather than adopting “Germany’s etiquette and approach of life.”

BERLIN - JULY 07: Two immature Muslim women travel by a pub draped in a German dwindle in a Arab and Turkish-heavy area of Neukoellsn during a FIFA 2010 World Cup compare between Germany and Spain on Jul 7, 2010 in Berlin, Germany. Many immigrants in Germany brand strongly with a German inhabitant team, in partial since many of a team's members have African, Arab, Turkish or East European roots. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

For some-more on Europe’s flourishing Muslim population, see this full report.

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